Updated forecast@ 3:45 PM/short term forecast

Updated forecast

still see now reason to make changes to forecast so will still leave it ride.....Still Am thinking the main show is going to be over MN and IA..Where the SPC does have a severe thunderstorm watch for them areas...

Short term forecast...

Looking at the VIS satellite,there are some breaks in the cloud cover..However this cam to little to late...I don't feel this is going to get the INSTBLY up to were it needs to be for severe thunderstorms...Models also some what agree on that....Still strong upper level dynamics are in place,but INSTBLY is lacking....Looking at the radar this shows up rather well as strong to severe thunderstorms in Western MN push East they have been weaken,See this more as they push towards WI...Up in my Northwest part of the FA...As storm have been moving towards Burnnett County from MN they have be weaken to do the lack of INSTBLY to keep them strong...Watching this all afternoon...Another reason not to change the forecast....Any place that has breaks in the cloud cover shall fill back in rather fast....Thinking is by time the Cold front reaches the area most of the upper level dynamics will be null..Will depend on the amount of SFC heating that can get going...Side note would need about 3 hrs of good SFC heating for storms to make the trek across MN into my FA to remain severe...Will keep updating as needed...