Friday, July 3, 2009

Great looking weekend on tap!

Forecast problems...None...Previous forecast right on the money....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning are hanging in the upper 40 to lower 50s..While EAU is showing 59...There are some areas of fog through out the FA...Winds are null this morning....

SFC/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS...

Weather charts this morning showing mid/upper level ridging now in control of our weather...The pesky upper level low that has brought CLDY Skies,along with off and on light showers,and cold temps,has now shifted far enough to the East where it shouldn't have any effects on the weather...Meantime we do see a shortwave over the Rockies reaching towards the Midwest...This shortwave will become dangerous close to the FA...Looks like right now it's going to miss the FA as it moves Southeast....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....
1012 MB low pressure over Eastern CO is FCSTD to move into KS /NE by 12z Saturday..Meanwhile a trof is FCSTD to push along Southern MN/IA before diving Southeast....This should leave the FA high and dry,as the showers and thunderstorms stay over Far Southern MN....May see some CLDS from the systems but nothing more as of right now....So with that thinking Am going to run with PTLY CLDY skies today and will run with more CLDS tonight....Highs today shall reach for the middle 70s..Winds will remain light today...Lows tonight fall to around the middle 50s...Wind still light.....

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Looks like a great weekend shaping up for most of the FA...May see more CLDS in my Southern parts of the FA,however it should remain rain free....Rest of my FA should be basking under MSLTY sunny skies both days...Highs will reach for the upper 70s both days...Would not be surprised to see a few 80s..Still temps will be SLTY below normal...However what we have just been through,it sure will feel nice and warm.....Lows...AM going to range them from the lower to middle 50s both nights.. Going to be a great weekend for the cabin,lakes grilling....Anything outdoors....When it's dinner time don't forget about this Forecaster,I will be more than happy to come over meet knew people, and enjoy great food,along volleyball or horse shoes...Ok got carried away ...Back to the FCST....

FCST for the Fireworks display that will light up the sky through out the whole FA....
Will run a time frame from 10 PM to 10:45 PM....Sky conditions should for the most part be clear to PTLY CLDY...However in my Southern areas still could see more CLDS than the Central and Northern areas....Temps Am going to break this down into Northern,Central,and Southern areas.....Northern areas should range from 53 to 58...Central areas 53 to 58...Southern areas 59 to 64....Winds through the whole FA should be rather light around < 8 MPH...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Monday is a little tricky...WAA kicking Along with a system dropping Southeast may fire up a few showers and thunderstorms..Am not really to thrill about this just yet...Does warrant mention through...Still think it may miss us....Highs on your first Monday in July should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s...Tuesday the heat and humid conditions return in full force...Warm front FCSTD to push into the area highs will soar into the middle 80s under MSTLY sunny skies...Tuesday night shall see clouds increasing with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Wednesday is looking better for showers and thunderstorms as of right now...Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe..GFS/ECMWF have been advertising over the last few days..So confidence level is slowly coming up on this possible severe weather event....Highs on Wed still warm and muggy middle 80s...Wed night will still hold the chance of showers and thunderstorms...So still may be strong to severe early....Lows throttle back into the warm muggy middle 60s....Thur..More showers and thunderstorms possible,once again some of these could be strong to sever..That will depend on where the MCS sets up on Wed night...Highs middle 80s with lows in the 60s....

LONGER TERM..(FRIDAY JULY 10 THROUGH SUNDAY JULY 19)......

First off we need to visit the precip dept do to the fact they are now acting up....Friday the 10 still forced to run with showers and thunderstorms...Thinking this will be late afternoon into the over night hrs...These storms could become strong to severe also...Appears to be another MCS forming Friday night..If this happens still cloud be dealing with strong to severe thunderstorms through out the over night hrs......More showers and thunderstorms rear their ugly heads come Monday the 13 and into Tuesday the 14..Next chance at showers and thunderstorms move in Thur night the 17/Friday the 17..May hold into Saturday....
Alrighty lets run over to the temp dept and see if they are still remaining on track...Looks good if you like warm humid weather..Temps in the 80s,still may see a few 90s thrown in from time to time...So to sum up this FCST cycle...Active and warm and humid period....NOTICE....This period is so far out there in time..This FCST can and will be changing as we head closer to it...So this is not set in stone by any means.....

So to sum up this 4th of July weekend...Pick your word....Great,awesome,outstanding,excellent,supreme..You get the picture...
Have a good weekend everyone....Am not sure if I will have a FCST tomorrow...If all still looks good I may take off the next two days....