Forecast problems ...The chances of severe thunderstorms...AThen temps will be back to the cool side for Sat highs in the 70s...This FCST discussion will mainly focus on the severe thunderstorm threat....
CURRENT CONDITIONS....
Temps this morning are on the cool side once again...48 being reported up in Hayward....While EAU reporting 56...Most stations are in the middle 50s....Most of my far Northern areas are coming in with PTLY CLDY skies,while my Central and Southern areas showing MSTLY CLDY skies...Visible satellite confirms this....
SFC LEVEL ANALYSIS.....
Large area of 1019 MB high pressure is centered just North of Lake Superior extending Northward to around the Western part of Hudson Bay....Meantime we find a FNTL BNDRY over Central IA with a 1008 MB low pressure centered over NE..FNTL BNDRY reaches West through NE then up into far western SD then into MT up into Canada....
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....
Today skies should become PTLY CLDY as the thunderstorm complex to our South over NE.Eastern IA and SW/Southern WI pushes off to the Southeast....Highs today should range from the upper 70s to lowers 80s across much of the FA....Tonight here is where problems rear up....Warm FNT is FCSTD to Slowly lift Northwards..This BNDRY should remain to our South,however is another area of MCS gets going as NAM model is hinting at...This area should effect mainly my Southern FA...GFS on the other would like to bring this area more North..Into my Central areas as well as my Southern areas...Thinking is that this MCS would stay in MN and push NE...Models have been battling with last night's MCS and this still shows up rather well with today and tonight on how they would like to handle this next shortwave moving into Western MN later today/tonight...AM going to have to update this later this afternoon as my confidence level is low on this...For now Am going to run with PTLY CLDY skies with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s....
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....
More headaches through this time frame,stress level is right off the charts...Our next trouble maker is FCSTD to move into the Pacific NW on Wed should be over Northern MT/Southern Canada by morning....A low pressure over about the same area is FCSTD to Move due East through out the day...This will be dragging a cold FNT into the area by late afternoon into the evening hrs...Lets talk about severe thunderstorms chances....This still remains well up in the air,and will largely depend on what does indeed take place tonight...If MCS do get going in the over night hrs of Wed....The main question is how fast the cloud debris can clear out....Thinking and blending most models..Would show skies should have enough breaks to cause enough destabilization of the atmosphere in the late afternoon hrs..However what makes no sense at all is some trusted models push most of the dynamics North of the area...While other models paint a bulls eye over head....Moisture return still remains problematic...Cap may also be a problem...H7 temps 10 to 12 C...However this is FSCTD to weaken just ahead and along the Cold FNT...So I would think severe thunderstorms will be possible...The extent of the coverage remains to be seen ATTM.Models do slow the cold FNT down as it reaches my Western Counties this could set the stage for more thunderstorms East of the FNT...Points East of Burnett,St.Croix,and Polk Counties through out the over night hrs..SPC has much of my FA under a 30 % probabilistic ....As of right now they do outline my FA with a SLT risk of severe thunderstorms..With a possibility of going to a MOD risk...As of right now I'm really sure if I agree with them...See their product for more info on their thinking.....Either way tomorrow afternoon/evening is looking rather interesting...Still not cut and dry though....So once again looks like I will have to update this FCST later this afternoon once I looks at the newer computer runs...Temps should be around 80 to 85...Lows in the lower to middle 60s.....
No long term FCST today as I'm trying to work out the details of this upcoming possible severe weather event...Looks like a very long and painstaking day here in the weather office...Welcome back from vacation Mother Nature tells me....
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
